ING has revised its price targets for gold and silver lower, citing a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields as persistent headwinds for the precious metals complex.
The Dutch bank ING has trimmed its outlook for both gold and silver, pointing to two of the most reliable suppressants of precious metals prices: a firming U.S. dollar and upward pressure on bond yields. When both forces align, the cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion rises in relative terms, often prompting investors to reduce exposure.
A stronger dollar makes gold and silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies, dampening international demand. At the same time, rising yields on U.S. Treasuries lift the opportunity cost of holding metals — money parked in bonds now earns more, which historically draws capital away from the metals complex.
ING’s revision reflects a broader recalibration among institutional analysts who entered 2025 with optimistic targets but are now accounting for a higher-for-longer rate environment. Gold had been supported earlier in the year by central bank buying and safe-haven flows tied to geopolitical uncertainty, but those tailwinds have faced increasing pressure as the dollar has regained footing.
Silver tends to feel these macro pressures even more acutely than gold, given its smaller market and its dual role as both a monetary metal and an industrial input. When financial conditions tighten and the dollar rises, silver often underperforms gold on a relative basis, widening the gold-to-silver ratio.
The forecast cut is a reminder that even in a market with solid structural demand — from central banks, ETFs, and industry — macro forces can cap price performance in the near term. What matters most for metals right now is the trajectory of real interest rates and the dollar index, both of which remain closely tied to Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Watch for any shift in Fed rate-cut timing or a softening in U.S. economic data, either of which could quickly reverse the dollar and yield dynamics currently weighing on metals.
